FORECASTS

Part I

By A. Prentice

Scripture citations are to the King James

(Authorised) Version, unless noted otherwise.

You can never plan the future by the past.

Edmund Burke (1729-1797)

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SHORT-TERM WEATHER forecasts have become increasingly more accurate over the past few years, thanks to advances in meteorological science and the application of computer technology. Britain's renowned Met Office recently announced that it is to acquire a supercomputer capable of 16,000 trillion calculations a second – about the time it takes for your cup of tea to fall off your desk and smash on the tiled floor. The computer, to be built by the American company, Cray, will weigh about 140 ʻlongʼ tons, the equivalent of eleven double-deckers. It will be thirteen times more powerful than the current system, having 120,000 times more memory than the most sophisticated mobile phone. [fn1]

Weather and Climate

. The speed, size and complexity of such a computer suggests the difficulty involved in weather predictions. And not even this advanced system will produce perfect results. Weather is notoriously un-predictable, as so many unforeseen variables enter the calculations.

Weather is defined as ʻthe state of the atmosphere at a particular place or time as regards heat, cloudiness, dryness, sunshine, wind, rain, etc.ʼ (Oxford English Dictionary). It is influenced by many local, regional and topographical factors. Climate on the other hand, the changing of which we hear so much these days, describes the overall and long-term state of weather over a wide geographical area – such as a usually hot, cold, tropical or subtropical climate. The Met Office explains it this way:

Climate, which comes from the Greek klima meaning ʻareaʼ, usually refers to a region's long-term weather patterns. This is measured in terms of average precipitation (i.e. the amount of annual rainfall, snow etc), maximum and minimum temperatures throughout the seasons, sunshine hours, humidity, the frequency of extreme weather, and so on.

Weather is more or less a local or regional phenomenon, and may alter from day to day, within the constraints of the prevailing climate (cold, hot, etc.). For instance, one would expect winter snow in north-east Canada, which has an Arctic climate, but not in the Sahara desert, where the climate is hot and dry. But how much snow will fall on Toronto in a given winter or how many sandstorms will blow in the Sahara will vary.

Global Climate Change is a forecast of a rise in the average worldwide temperature perhaps by up to four degrees Celsius by the end of this century. Accepted as a valid forecast by most scientists, but fiercely disputed by others, the phenomenon threatens to radically alter the living conditions of humanity, resulting in some benefits for those in cold climates, but catastrophic flooding and the degradation of the habitable environment for countries in warm climates. The culprit in this anticipated upheaval is identified as humanity itself, and so the process is described as Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW), the result of the release of high levels of hydrocarbons and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere over the past two hundred and odd years of worldwide industrialisation.[fn2]As we have noted in our columns, human-generated global warming has theological implications.[fn3]

A Dubious Endeavour

Most long-term forecasts have a notoriously low rate of success, particularly those related to social, economic, and political trends. For each generation is shaped by its own place in history and the mores and knowledge of its own period. It is difficult to leap beyond the limitations imposed by one's present knowledge and culture into a future as yet unformed.

There are exceptions. For example, the potential of existing technology can be extrapolated many years hence. One could predict with certainty that computers like the Met Office's new super machine will continue to become more complex and will run faster than today's models. One could assert with reasonable confidence that humans will explore farther into space than they can now, as demonstrated by the remarkable success of ESAʼs Rosetta mission a feat of science and technology twenty-five years in the making. We are now conditioned to expect continual improvement in how things are done. Our minds (and brains) have been irrevocably altered by the sights and sounds of the modern world to a degree we could never have imagined when we were younger. (Even birds in our cities have learned to imitate the ringing of a mobile phone!)

It was not always so. For centuries, generations came and went with little alteration to the daily life of the average person. The acceleration of technical progress began in earnest with the onset of the Industrial Revolution, first in the West and then throughout the rest of the world, though these rewards are still not spread evenly. But very few of the innovations which have brought us to this point in history could have been foreseen in detail, for many of them have been disruptive figurative storms sending human civilisation off on a track which it would not otherwise have taken in the expected course of events. And despite these far-reaching developments in technology and mode of living which have transpired in a relatively short period there are even more spectacular things to come, things which will catch most of us by surprise.

The Future From The Bible's Point Of View

Like its Author, the Bible is a book of the Past, the Present, and the Future. Of Jesus, the epitome of the Word of God, the Scripture says that He is the same ʻyesterday, and to day, and for everʼ (Heb. 13: 8). Under inspiration, the prophets looked forward to ages far in advance of their own, a future which to them was shrouded in mystery, represented only through dreams and visions, which they could not always comprehend. Their prophecies were recorded especially for our generation, ʻon whom the ends of the world [age] are comeʼ (1 Cor. 10: 11).

Although the future is a constant theme in the Bible, the word itself ʻfutureʼ does not appear in the King James (Authorised) Bible, the translation with which most English speakers from the time of its publication in 1611 grew up with. The idea is expressed in language familiar to people for whom the next day was as far as they were able to contemplate, whose concept of time and distance was very different from our own.

In the following texts, the words in italics are equivalent to the meaning of a distant ʻfutureʼ:

Gen. 30: 33:ʻSo shall my righteousness answer for me in time to come [or, tomorrow] . . .ʼ

Prov. 23: 18:ʻFor surely there is an end; and thine expectation shall not be cut off.ʼ

Matt. 26: 64:ʻHereafter shall ye see the Son of man sitting on the right hand of power . . .ʼ

Heb. 3: 5:ʻMoses verily was faithful in all his house, as a servant, for a testimony of those things which were to be spoken after; . . .ʼ

In other texts the plain meaning is that of a time remote from the giving of the prophecy. For instance:

Ezek. 12: 27: ʻThe vision that he seeth is for many days to come, and he prophesieth of the times that are far off.ʼ

Dan. 12: 4: ʻBut thou, O Daniel, shut up the words, and seal the book, even to the time of the end: many shall run to and fro, and knowledge shall be increased.ʼ [The term ʻtime of the endʼ is a favourite one in Scripture. Here it seems to refer to our own frenetic period of global interchange and the information explosion the running ʻto and froʼ.]

More modern translations of the Bible do use the word ʻfutureʼ. It is hard to imagine our language without the term, considering the powerful influence exerted on the modern mind by technology and the exploration of space. But for those earlier generations, whose day began and ended with the sun, the immensity of time which would have to intervene between the ancient prophecies and their fulfilment was not clearly understood. Indeed, this fact was hid from them, lest they became discouraged with the waiting.

Many of the prophecies were not meant to be understood until the contextual events which would make their fulfilment possible were in place. Indeed, how could a citizen of ancient Palestine construct a mental picture of a computer? How could a citizen of sixteenth-century England have grasped the notion of a train, a car, or an aeroplane? Or, in more recent times, could the citizens of Berlin have known in 1961 that the Wall would come down in 1989, just twenty-eight years later?

If this principle applies to human knowledge and foresight, how much more does it apply to prophecies from the sacred Word, which are intentionally hid from the unbelievers?

Jesus hints at the impossibility of clearly forecasting future events when He said, with reference to the events surrounding His Second Advent, ʻof that day and hour knoweth no [one], no, not the angels of heaven, but my Father onlyʼ (Matt. 24: 34-36; compare Mark 13: 30-32). In answer to a question from His disciples as to when He would set up His kingdom, He replies (Acts 1: 7), ʻIt is not for you to know the times or the seasons, which the Father hath put in his own power [authority]ʼ. The Apostle Peter observes that even the prophets themselves, and also the angels, desired ʻto look intoʼ these things, implying that they did not already know (1 Pet. 10: 12).

Continues

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[fn1] A trillion is one million million. On the old British ʻlongʼ scale it was one million million million. The ʻlongʼ ton is 2,240 lbs. For comparison, a metric ton (tonne) is 2,204.6 lbs (1,000 kg). The ʻshortʼ ton, used in the United States, is 2,000 lbs.

[fn2] For more information pro and con respectively, see <metoffice.gov.uk/climate-guide/climate-change> and Broadly

speaking, meteorological scientists assume that AGW is inevitable and unavoidable, unless stringent controls on the consumption of fossil fuels are introduced. Many governments agree and have introduced wide-ranging plans to generate electricity from renewable and non-polluting sources, and imposing restrictions, with penalties, on ʻpollutingʼ industries. Success or failure in this endeavour will depend on how many important industrial nations join in. Those interested in this subject may wish to read the latest reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). <ipcc.ch/>

[fn3] ʻBread and Stonesʼ

<ukbiblestudents.co.uk/questionbox/qb76.htm>

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November 2014. All author rights asserted, except that you may reproduce this article without explicit permission. Please acknowledge the source.

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